Brexit: High risk of accidental No Deal

Wed 23 October 2019, Philippe Ropenga

I have written on this blog in December 2017: "Brexit will be completed in due course since there is no end to it."¹ Sorry for quoting myself but the debate over the Letwin Amendment reveals that there is a critical misunderstanding over what Brexit is. This misunderstanding is critical since the UK runs the risk of crashing out of the EU because of an accidental No Deal. I have always been optimistic about a positive outcome regarding Brexit since it is an endless process. I worry about the fact that some British politicians seem to consider Brexit as a purely internal matter while it is an international agreement (1). The way in which the Brexit process has been messed up during the past few days shows that today's politics is extremely weak (2).

1 An international agreement

When an international process is on the way, anyone sensible would expect politicians to debate the international agreement that is on the table. It is important to note that Brexit has always been and remains a transitional process. The Second Withdrawal Agreement contains a Part Four that is entitled "Transition".² Its article 126 provides that:

There shall be a transition or implementation period, which shall start on the date of entry into force of this Agreement and end on 31 December 2020.

I fully understand that MPs have been anxious about a voluntary No Deal and that an Act commonly known as the Benn Act has been passed to prevent it. The said Act has received Royal Assent on 9 September 2019³. Its Section 1(4) aims at requesting an extension of the transition period to 31 January 2020. The House of Commons was supposed to debate the Second Withdrawal Agreement Bill on 19 October 2019. Unfortunately, the Letwin Amendment interrupted the debate about the Second Withdrawal agreement by asking to debate the legislation that implements the Bill before the Bill itself!⁴ It seems to me that this Amendment puts everything upside down. I know that the law that implements an international instrument into domestic law such as a EU Directive matters. Nevertheless, one should not discuss whether the door of a future fridge should open on the left or on the right side before accepting to consider the house plan. Moreover, as I have written several times on this blog, Brexit is a transition process; there is still a long way to go before every detail of the exit is fixed. Practical questions related to the UK exit can only be solved once the British Parliament has approved the canvas contained in the Second Withdrawal Agreement. Strange as it may seem, a majority of MPs prefers to focus on internal matters instead of concentrating on the Deal since MPs have started to consider it yesterday only⁵. I fear that fruitful talks may take place after the deadline. Hence, the UK may well crash out of the EU since an accidental No Deal is likely to take place.

The handling of Brexit shows the extreme weakness of British politics.

2 Extremely weak politics

As you might have noticed from my previous posts on Brexit, I deeply regret that it has been turned into something boring.⁶ The instructions given to Parliament by the British people hold in one word: LEAVE. Sophisticated solutions have been imagined⁷ while the most important thing to do was to keep things as simple as possible. I supported Theresa May in her determination to put a reasonable transitional process in place, and I support Boris Johnson in his new attempt to do something about Brexit. Leaving the EU requires a considerable amount of work that can only be done once a withdrawal agreement has been ratified by the EU and the UK. Unfortunately, it seems to me that many politicians in Western democracies are too weak to decide anything. The situation in the UK is a good example of this political weakness. MPs indeed are too weak to agree to a deal, to a No Deal, or to a general election. Hence, Brexit seems to be a British dead end. Regional parties that support independence should therefore vote against any agreement with the EU if they wish this state of weakness to persist. During the Second Reading of the Second Withdrawal Agreement Bill that took place yesterday, Jeremy Corbyn has suggested to negotiate another Withdrawal Agreement with the EU to prevent the UK from crashing out of the EU.⁸ Nevertheless, the only thing to do to prevent the UK from crashing out of the EU is to move on in one direction or the other. Suggesting to start negotiating about a possible Third Withdrawal Agreement is not moving on but dragging a deep state of harmful uncertainty on. It dramatically increases the risk of an accidental no-deal Brexit! One may however understand that Mr. Corbyn and many other MPs are too weak to decide anything. Political life is often ironic. This irony may have positive effects here. Donald Tusk, President of the European Council has tweeted earlier today that he will support a British request to extend the transition period.⁹ In other words, the British people has voted to regain control over its destiny and the EU may have to act to prevent harmful consequences of the inaction of the majority of British MPs who is too weak to decide anything about Brexit! The British Prime Minister has to decide whether such an extension would be useful. Hopefully, as the deadline of 31 October 2019 is approaching, MPs will at least agree to postpone their internal disputes and thus regain some strength to do something about Brexit.

Who will be will see.

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