Brexit is a bleak process (1) that is used as an endless screw (2).
1 A bleak process
At this time of year, one may think about singing In a bleak midwinter. The current UK-EU talks rather recall the atmosphere of Bleak House to me. The whole process boils down to huge regulatory works (1.1) driven by unclear political ambitions (1.2).
1.1 Huge regulatory works
Brexit clearly deals with regulation in a globalised world. Negotiations regarding trade are still on the way.1 Many sectors will be affected by Brexit. Hence, one can see that issues have quickly been handled. Nevertheless, core topics that have influenced people who voted REMAIN or LEAVE still need to be resolved2, I already have mentioned them here3. Borders do not only have an effect on trade but also on people since they affect citizens' rights. Strange as it may seem, freedom of circulation seems to be a critical issue when it comes to commerce but has been given less attention under the perspective of people living in the UK or in the EU. The only thing sure is that a settled status will be created, and that any kind of permission to stay granted in accordance with EU law may be revoked after Brexit since UK will not be bound by EU law anymore.4
This uncertainty reveals that political ambitions of leaders who are in charge of negotiating Brexit are unclear.
1.2. No clear political ambitions
Politicians on both sides know that the Brexit will take place at some point but are not sure about what they want to achieve by Brexit. They do not prefer to deal with trade issues because they ignore people. It would be unfair to say so. The are doing a great job at sorting regulatory issues out on time. It just is easier to deal with technical aspects of a regulation than to conceive a future after Brexit that would satisfy millions of people across several countries.
The is why Brexit is used as an endless screw.
2 An endless screw
Brexit is used to move the UK out of the EU without damage. The mechanical approach sets aside the question of legitimacy (2.1). Enthusiasm is still needed to invent the future (2.2).
2.1 The question of legitimacy
To craft a future for millions of people, politicians have to take decisions that seem legitimate beyond reasonable doubt to anyone. Can anyone give me the name of a leader who would seem legitimate to those who voted LEAVE, those who voted REMAIN, as well as those who did not vote? No politician will come out with strong propositions regarding Brexit that could lead to a fierce but constructive debate since no politician would take the risk to make any mess. As a result, politicians are working hard only to avoid that Brexit ends like Jarndyce v. Jarndyce.
Brexit will probably succeed. One more thing is needed to invent better relationships accross Europe, as well as between the EU and the UK: enthusiasm.
2.2 The need for enthusiasm
Brexit is a challenge. If one focuses on what the EU pre-Brexit had to offer, one tends to forget the downside of the former situations and to disregard post-Brexit opportunities. Many people will be disapointed since Brexit in itself cannot lead to a deeply reformed EU. Let's be realistic: it already is difficult to move the UK out of the EU without damage. A vast reform of the EU cannot happen at the same time. Brexit may inspire some changes, but they would be discussed after Brexit, without the UK. Moreover, those who would appreciate debates about nationality, border control, culture, or education will not be satisfied either: it clearly is not the purpose of a transitional process such as Brexit. Citizens will have to decide what they want to do after Brexit. This shows after all that we still leave in democratic societies.
In brief, Brexit may seem disappointing because it mainly deals with regulation. Political aspirations expressed by those who voted LEAVE or REMAIN will not be taken into account during Brexit. Dealing with political aspirations indeed is not the purpose of this kind of transitional process.
Despite the bleak weather, I wish you all a warm and peaceful Christmas and all the best in the New Year.