I have recently seen a star, brightest than the brightest gem. No, it was not the Star of Bethlehem. It was the Withdrawal Agreement1. In September 2017, I have noted that two topics had not attracted sufficient attention: the Irish border and the relationship between the UK and the EU.2 The border issue is now discussed, and I am optimistic. How is it possible to be optimistic when crucial questions have not been answered during the last two years? Brexit is not a deal regarding the future relationship between the UK and the EU but an endless screw designed to move the UK out of the EU without damage.3 The Withdrawal Agreement thus has no other function than to put this endless screw in place. Brexit is not designed to shape the future of the UK. This can only be done by the British people. The Withdrawal Agreement only implements the framework of the transition period that even can be extended to a later date then that of the British exit.4 The British people travel across the desert of Brexit. There is still a long way to go, but the Withdrawal Agreement shines through the shadows. Unfortunately, Brexit is not a Christmas Carol, and people do not know what they will find at the end of their journey. As with many deserts, mirages (1) have to be distinguished from reality (2).
1 Mirages
Many politicians and journalists have supported the REMAIN or LEAVE option without having a clear idea of what Brexit was. I am not blaming them for not knowing it since Brexit was really unclear to me until I started digging in official papers that have been produced about Brexit to find something precise. It is true though that I have been trained in EU law and international law. There however are two things that I do not understand about the political debate regarding Brexit. I assume that this is because I am French, and because I live in France. Please feel free to explain me how British politics work by dropping me a line.
I have already made clear more than a year ago that Brexit was a transitional process that did not deal with the future of the UK. I suspect that some MPs have been lured by a mirage. How is it possible to discover just a few days before an important vote that the Withdrawal Agreement does not contain anything about the future of the UK?
The desire for exoticism expressed by some Brexiteers and many Remainers also is misleading. It often is called the Norwegian+ option. It really is bizarre since no one seems to know what it implies in practice. It however sounds appealing, fast, and easy to many ears. The issue is that if the transitional process contained in the Withdrawal Agreement is formally rejected, there is no transitional process at all. The UK will just fall out of the EU without parachute. The mighty supporters of the Norwegian+ option would then fly to prevent the UK from crashing itself. This cannot happen.
Let us go back to reality!
2 Reality
I have explained in a previous post that the alternative between hard and soft Brexit could only lead to a disappointing result.5 Voting against the Withdrawal Agreement exposes the UK to a hard Brexit while the supporters of the Norwegian+ option argue that it may lead to the softest Brexit possible. The UK has not been able to express what it wanted when it voted for Brexit. I cannot figure out how the UK will be able to ask for another transition period to implement the so-called Norwegian+ option after a formal rejection of the Withdrawal Agreement. For the Norwegian+ option to succeed, British politicians would have to convince the British people to adopt the softest Brexit possible before convincing the rest of the EU that the Norwegian+ option also is good for the EU. Politicians will have to do it before the UK crashes out of the EU.
Some of you have written to let me know that I was not clear enough about my views on Brexit. Labelling me as a Remainer or a Brexiteer does not make any sense since I am not British. I am amazed when I see how quickly people get passionate about vague terms such as Brexit. The Norwegian+ option is just the "soft Brexit" repackaged by journalists and/or politicians who probably have noticed that many of you were as bored by Brexit as I were. It seems to me that the Withdrawal Agreement is a shining light in the sense that it should guide British politicians to a reasonable outcome. The Prime Minister is trying to consolidate the transitory framework contained in the Withdrawal drafting and to solve the thorny border issue. She should be supported. I am afraid that some MPs are putting the future of the UK at risk by quarrelling about vague expressions such as "Norwegian+ option" or "soft Brexit". It seems to me that media like these expressions because it allows to write papers about vague things that instantly give rise to passionate debates.
I would therefore kindly suggest to switch the radio or TV off as soon as someone pronounces the word Brexit. Do not hesitate to listen to nice Carols and enjoy a proper Christmas dinner instead.
In brief, one thinks better after one has stopped ingurgitating vague expressions related to Brexit. I wish you all a delightful Christmas as well as a healthy and happy New Year.
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Agreement on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union and the European Atomic Energy Community, as endorsed by leaders at a special meeting of the European Council on 25 November 2018. ↩
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See Brexit: Is there anything beyond regulation? at §2. ↩
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See Article 132 of the Withdrawal Agreement. ↩